With the Champions League semi-final tied at 1-1 after the first leg, both Arsenal and Atletico Madrid know that only one standout performance separates them from reaching the final. Betting analyst Richard Trenchard assesses which team will prevail at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday (21:00 CET).
The first leg in Madrid was defined by three penalties: two were awarded and one was controversially overturned. Viktor Gyokeres and Julian Alvarez each converted their spot-kicks before and after halftime, while Ebe Eze went down in the box following a challenge from David Hancko. Referee Danny Makkelie initially pointed to the spot but reversed his decision after reviewing the incident on the pitchside monitor.
Most observers would agree that Atletico came closer to breaking the deadlock in the first leg, dominating the shot count 18-11 and the corner count 6-1. However, Arsenal remain firmly in the tie, provided they can summon the energy for another strong performance in what has been a grueling campaign.
**Key Match Details**
Bookmakers list Arsenal as favorites at 1.65 to win in regular time, implying a 60.6% probability. Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid are priced at 2.20 to either win or draw, representing a 45.5% chance. If you watched the first leg, you likely share our view: a 60% chance of Arsenal victory seems optimistic, while a 45% chance of Atletico not losing appears pessimistic. Following that logic, the Spanish side offers value to avoid defeat at the Emirates.
**Why Atletico Can Avoid Loss**
One reason to back Atletico’s chances is their consistent goal-scoring form this season. Despite Diego Simeone’s typically conservative style, the team has been prolific in the Champions League. They have netted five against Frankfurt, three against PSV, two at Anfield, and two against Inter Milan. Atletico scored seven goals across 180 minutes against both Club Brugge and Tottenham, before putting three past Barcelona, the eventual La Liga champions, in the knockout stages.
However, Simeone’s side have also conceded goals, and with Arsenal capable of scoring from open play and set pieces, a bet on both teams scoring looks attractive.
**Late Drama Possible**
It would not be surprising if this second leg starts cautiously. With so much at stake, neither side will want to make mistakes or launch an all-out attack from the first whistle.
