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Expert Predictions for the 2026 PGA Championship: Top Contenders and Underdogs to Watch

Posted on: 05/13/2026

Scottie Scheffler

Scottie Scheffler warms up at Aronimink on a Tuesday afternoon.

While Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy have dominated recent majors—winning four of the last five—other talented players like J.J. Spaun (last year’s U.S. Open winner), Xander Schauffele, and Bryson DeChambeau are certainly capable of spoiling their run. At Aronimink Golf Club near Philadelphia, the field is deep, and the question remains: who can step up beyond the world’s top two? Below, we break down the five leading contenders after Scheffler and McIlroy in the odds, plus sleeper selections from our editorial team.

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**Top Five Odds Contenders (Excluding Scheffler and McIlroy)**

– **Cam Young (+1,200):** The Players Championship and Cadillac Championship winner also tied for third at the Masters. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total this season.

– **Jon Rahm (+1,600):** Undefeated in LIV Golf this year with two wins, never finishing worse than a tie for eighth.

– **Xander Schauffele (+1,800):** Third at the Players and T9 at the Masters; two major wins in the last nine.

– **Bryson DeChambeau (+2,000):** Two LIV victories this season, plus U.S. Open wins in 2020 and 2024.

– **Ludvig Aberg (+2,000):** Five top-eight finishes in his last six events, ranked third on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: total.

**Sleeper Picks (Players at 100-1 or Longer)**

– **Alex Fitzpatrick:** Won the Zurich Classic with his brother Matt, then posted T9 at the Cadillac Championship and fourth at the Truist Championship.

– **Gary Woodland:** Won the Texas Children’s Houston Open earlier this year and is an emotional favorite after sharing his battle with PTSD following brain surgery.

– **Thomas Detry:** Currently fourth in the LIV Golf standings.

– **Ben Griffin:** Three wins in 2024, including a third-place finish at the Cadillac Championship.

– **Harris English:** Only one missed cut in 12 PGA Tour starts this season.

– **Jason Day:** Two missed cuts in 11 Tour starts this season.

**Our Staff’s Picks to Win and Sleepers**

– **Josh Berhow** – *To win:* Cameron Young (+1,200). His Sunday 74 at the Truist was an outlier; otherwise, he’s been stellar. *Sleeper:* Kristoffer Reitan (+8,000). He just won on Sunday and remains a long shot worth backing.

– **James Colgan** – *To win:* Brooks Koepka (+4,000). A burly Northeast course suits his game, and his form is quietly improving. *Sleeper:* Daniel Berger (+22,500). A surprisingly competitive performance in Philly wouldn’t shock me.

– **Dylan Dethier** – *To win:* Cameron Young (+1,200). His stretch from the Ryder Cup to the Masters shows he’s ready for a breakthrough. *Sleeper:* Matt McCarty (+15,000). Playing very well, plus Ben Polland (+200,000) could sneak into the top 40.

– **Jack Hirsh** – *To win:* Cameron Young (+1,200). He won his first PGA Tour event at a classic Donald Ross course—Aronimink feels similar. *Sleeper:* Jordan Spieth (+8,000). Going for the career Grand Slam would be a great story.

– **Jessica Marksbury** – *To win:* Scottie Scheffler (+450). The defending champ hasn’t finished worse than T24 all year, with recent runner-ups at the Masters and RBC Heritage. *Sleeper:* Min Woo Lee (+6,000). His off‑the‑tee power suits Aronimink, and he’s trending with T18 at Cadillac and T14 at Truist.

– **Nick Piastowski** – *To win:* Ludvig Aberg (+2,000). Five top‑10s in six starts; this could be his first major victory. *Sleeper:* Gary Woodland (+10,000). Solid season with four top‑25s, including a win, and a compelling personal narrative.

– **Josh Schrock** – *To win:* Cameron Young (+1,200). Since switching equipment and caddies nearly a year ago, he’s been the second‑best golfer in the world. His Masters Sunday stumble will fuel him. *Sleeper:* Rickie Fowler (+5,000). Consistent iron play and rediscovered putting confidence; top‑10s at RBC Heritage and Doral.

– **Josh Sens** – *To win:* Scottie Scheffler (+400). Still the world No. 1, with a worst finish of T7 in his last five majors. *Sleeper:* Keegan Bradley (+9,000). His

Nick Piastowski
Scottie Scheffler hits drive at Aronimink: 2026 PGA Championship Thursday tee times
Bryson Dechambeau
Jon Rahm looks on during a press conference at the 2026 PGA Championship